There. I said it.Don't get me wrong. Lord knows I love my team more than a grown man should. The coaching is excellent and the kids are talented. They're tougher this year. They're better.
And the timing may seem odd. The Gators are ranked #5 in the country, and just beat a tenacious Alabama team in the Swamp. Florida is undefeated at 5-0 and leads the SEC East. Since Meyer came on board they haven't lost in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, nursing a 12-0 home winning streak. The future of Gator football is blindingly bright.
But...
I made it clear at the beginning of the season that I felt this would probably be a 2 to 3 loss team, if luck is on our side. The Gators' schedule is too brutal, and this team has not improved sufficiently since the start of the season, for me to revise my assessment. And a 2 to 3 loss season with this year's schedule will mean that Meyer's '06 team is markedly better than last season's, even if the final tally is similar or even one loss worse.
The problem areas:
- Indecisive and erratic quarterback play, particularly in the first half. Five games into the season and it's apparent to all that Chris Leak is still, well, Chris Leak. He's good -- at times very, very good -- but he's not a great quarterback and likely never will be. He's still locking on to receivers, still sliding short, still missing wide-open players downfield. Yes, he makes key third-down coversions and generally gets better throughout the game, but he's just not good enough across the board to take this team to a national championship. That is in no way an indictment of Chris Leak's talent or effort, both of which are superb. He is 95% of the package. The problem is, you need that other 5% to be a great QB.
- Kicking. Go figure, we can't kick a field goal this year. I'm hopeful that the problem can be corrected, but not optimistic. We're five games in, and the kicking unit has three missed FGs and surrendered two blocked extra points. That's enough to get into a kicker's head and wreak some mental havoc. I'm not sure what happened to Hetland this year but we need the young walk-on with a chip on his shoulder back in action. This scholarship kicker is struggling. Florida will not win a championship without decent kicking.
- Slow starts and sluggish scoring capability. Florida keeps winning on the backs of the defense. We need more offense and we need it in the first half. With the exception of the UCF game, Florida has started slow all year long. We need 60 minutes of productivity. One good half per game will not cut it. Florida also needs a more explosive offensive attack capability to put more points on the board using less time. Mark my words, the Gators will find themselves in a hole this season and be unable to climb out of it due to their downtempo mindset.
- Still too many penalties. False starts, holding, delays of game. Every team suffers from them, but the Gators are, at least in theory, a disciplined team which knows how to handle crowd noise, adversity, defensive stunts, and so on. But they're not. Florida recovered from several of their penalty setbacks against Alabama, but at least two contributed directly to drive-ending 4th downs.
- Flag-football tackling. I'm seeing a lot of fingertip and anklebiting tackles. Our linebackers and defensive linemen appear to be out of position on most run-stopping plays and easily juked out of their shoes by an athletic tailback. While Florida only allowed 88 yards of rushing to Alabama, it seemed that the Tide's Kenneth Darby could run up the middle at will against the Gators, particularly in the seocnd half, ripping off 10 to 12 yards at a time. (Not sure why Shula didn't commit to the run a bit more, because it was working.)
So, it may take a gut check, but these Gators aren't, in my opinion, contenders right now despite the perfect W/L record. Please prove me wrong, gentlemen. A dish of salty crow served hot would be a delicious meal to eat after watching a successful outcome in the SEC Championship game. You send the bird, I'll provide the nachos.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-01-2006 @ 9:02PM
Jim Kuykendall said...
First, let me say, I am an avid Gator fan. Have been since the early 70's in high school. Your assesment is totally in line with what I have been preaching to family and friends for the last three weeks. We do not have the look and feel of a top 5 team. As you stated, we cannot survive this brutal schedule with play that,at times, seems inept. Don't get me wrong, I love the Gators,but I don't see us holding on to our lofty spot in the polls all year long. I'd love nothing more, than to be proven wrong. Please, Gators, make me eat crow!
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10-01-2006 @ 9:55PM
Jeff Harris said...
'Your team'?, You are the kind of Gator Fan we can do without. Don't try to conceal that you're a 'Gator Hater' with your perceived 'clear view' or 'just as you see it'. A lot of the items you refer to are things coaches insist on. Chris Leak is not the Gators; he's just one player doing what his coaches are telling him to do. Yes the 3-point and 1-point kicking game has been poor; but the kick-off, return and punt coverage is better than it's been in ten years, give them some credit instead of tearing them down. Sluggish starts may have something to do with WE'RE PLAYING IN THE SEC DUMMY. Best I can recall is that we're having fewer penalties than Spurrier coached teams (Please note that Spurrier took the Gators to a couple of SEC Championship games). Go back and look at the tackling effort in last year’s games and tell me again that we're not tackling well. Yea Shula's an idiot, and you would do a lot better. Please don't go to the LSU game, it's homecoming, and there are thousands of people that would enjoy it better. GO GATORS (0-10-1 or 12-0).
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10-01-2006 @ 10:20PM
Ryan Ferguson said...
Take it easy, Jeff. I'm as big a homer as you'll find but I also feel that I have to be honest with my opinions.
I'll be at the game, thank you very much, just like I am every week (and I usually make a few away games each year.) I cheer loud, loud enough for the folks around me to take notice. I'm pretty sure I'm not doing the Gators any disservice with my presence.
My entire point is that while Florida is a very good football team this year, they will not, in my prediction, go undefeated. I don't know of any blogger or sportswriter who has predicted that with a straight face. And at their current level of play -- which can be elevated, and has in the past by Meyer during practice between games -- they will not win out over the next few games. In my opinion.
I am a Gator fan first. I always want my team to win. And I believe all of the games we'll play are winnable. I just don't think the odds will be on our side when we face LSU this weekend, again, unless Meyer makes adjustments this week. Every other game on our schedule, including Auburn, by the way, I believe should favor the Gators. I simply view LSU as a particularly bad matchup for us.
Thanks for commenting and Go Gators!
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10-01-2006 @ 10:24PM
David Bloom said...
If not for defense, we might be talking about next year already. We are further hurt by situation and RB with Wynn’s status uncertain. Good commentary. This article shows you can look inside and be objective.
Mt take on Chris Leak is after four years as a starter you would think he would improve some. He does not have the strong arm, he locks in on recievers, and was not even best qb on field yesterday.
We maybee should think about what to do about playing stronger early in these games. coming from behind eventually will catch up to ya.
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10-01-2006 @ 10:49PM
Ken said...
I think Ryan is accurate. And I am also a Gator fan and was at the Kentucky game last week. The Gators running game needs a bit more punch to be a top five. Leak is great, but still underthrows a lot. BUT...the defensive backs looked like All Americans against Bama and this season has been a hell of a lot of fun so far. Polls are crazy anyway so who cares? There is a lot of season left.
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10-01-2006 @ 11:16PM
Patrick Swonger said...
It looks like you're seeing the glass as half empty based on a lackluster showing of the offense against Bama. Who cares that we'll play Auburn, Georgia and other teams in the weeks to come - only LSU matters for now and we can and will beat them.
After all, many of the players on this team (with very few weapons and limited playbook) took a stronger LSU team to the edge in Death Valley last year. I like our chances at home this time around with a thicker playbook, a better offensive line, more speed and a corps of offensive playmakers. Our defense has also improved from last year while the LSU defense has less dimension, especially in the running game.
I'm a Gator and have been since Ray Graves coached here. This team is as tough as any I can remember. I believe in them, their talent, hard work and chance to win every game until a team is good enough to defeat them. For anyone who calls themselves a Gator to say they'll lose 2-3 games this season is self-defeating and shows a losers mentality that thankfully, this team doesn't share.
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10-02-2006 @ 8:59AM
Scott said...
What you say is true, and I agree with a lot of it. Especially about Leak. It's hard to put a finger on it, and argue against his good numbers, but there is something about him that makes him good but no where near great. One I think he is too scared and not aggressive enough to be successful against SEC type defenses for every single game. Two, great point about locking on. He throws to a spot, and stares it down everytime. He doesn't really check off. Florida is a good team but has some sketchy areas....it's gonna take two of their best games in a long time to beat LSU and Auburn. Especially LSU, I think they are the best team in the SEC despite their loss at Auburn... BUT, not so fast. Florida has their question marks, but you can't be that critical about them when you examine every other team in the top 10 beside Ohio St. You can be pretty critical about most of those teams as well. That's how it goes. USC barely beat a team Auburn beat by 3+ TD's, Auburn could have very well lost to South Carolina, Michigan showed some weakness at the end of their game, West VA has yet to prove anything, etc etc. So although Florida has some question marks, I think it is safe to say they are worthy of a top 5 ranking.
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10-02-2006 @ 9:30AM
eric burdette said...
Let's see, Leak is still in top ten in passing efficiency and TD passes, the defense is still in the top ten against the run and scoring defense and we still can't get no respect. Believe me the penalties and woeful kicking game are scaring the hell out of me but let's give credit where it is due. The gators are 5-0 due to Chris Leak's leadership and the D line's strong play. Yeah, Leak does not light it up on the first five possessions like Spurriers teams use to but his ability to stay calm and focused and move on to the next play or next drive is what has allowed the offense to make the plays neccessary to win ballgames. Equally important has been the D lines ability to make plays when they need them particularly in the second half when games are won or lost. Maybe they will win them all or maybe they'll lose a couple, who knows, but at least let's give them credit where credit is due. This is not Ron Zook's Florida Gators, this is the tough team Urban Meyer promised when he took over. OOOUUUUTTTT!
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10-02-2006 @ 12:00PM
larry said...
The mighty Gators are two plays against Tenn and Alabama from being in the loss column. Both teans had fingertip passes droped that were possible tuchdowns. Alabama outplayed the Gators for almost three quarters and still lost. The Gators maybe get lucky against LSU or Auburn but 50% would be great. Chris Leak is a good player but doesn't appear to appear until after halftime. Still with all these great receivers I can't understand why he looks for the homerun all the time. If he were to hit alternates in the 5 to 10 yard range the long ball would open up more. Deshawn is needed for the heavy running game to work. Markus Thomas would give the defence a lift for shure but he was at Tenn and we were lucky. Coming from behind will dig the grave for this team sooner or later. I agree 2 or 3 losses. Maybe LSU will drink a lot befor the game.
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10-02-2006 @ 3:03PM
eric burdette said...
Here's some interesting stats for you Leak bashers who think he's not a champion:
"When down to UT late in the second half, Leak completed 8 of his final 11 passes (73%) for two TDs and 0 INTs.
When down by 1 to UK with about 2 minutes left before the half, Leak completed 5 of 5 passes (100%) for a TD to retake the lead at halftime.
When down to Bama at the half, Leak completed 9 of 10 passes (90%) in the second half for two TDs and 0 INTs.
Chris Leak is playing like a champion."
Additionally, according to the latest stats, Gator D is 4th against the run nationally, 11th in pass efficiency defense, 4th in scoring defense, and 13th in total defense.
All this while playing in the toughest conference in college football. What do they have to do to get respect?
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10-03-2006 @ 9:26AM
GG93 said...
I see LSU and maybe Auburn as the possible losses. 2
I think we beat Auburn (lost starting center) and LSU (playing in the Swamp 4 homecoming)
SEC Championship is a tossup but we should be better by then.
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10-03-2006 @ 7:28PM
Rand said...
I tend to agree with you on many points. I am hoping that all the work that the coaches and team has put in will allow them to put it all together and take it to the next level.
Then again, thay might just win 'em all ugly.
Except for Spurrier who will beat the Gators.
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10-04-2006 @ 8:32AM
Dennis said...
I've been a Gator fan since the Charlie Pell era. I love my gators. However, I have to agree that we are not a top five team. A top five team can compete for a national championship. For a team to EVEN compete for the NC they need to be GREAT on at least one side of the ball (offense or defense), be VERY good on the other side of the ball, have special teams play that won't cost you a game, be tough enough to pull a game out of the hat when things are'nt clicking, and have a little luck. AND THEY NEED ALL THIS THE ENTIRE SEASON.
We have shown toughness this year. I think so far we've shown more toughness than any team since the mid eighties ( 1984 ).
So lets compare the 1984 team (the best money could buy), the 1996 team (NC) and this years team.
1984 - Great Defense, Good offense, Great Special Teams
1996 - Great Offense, Good defense, Great Special Teams
2006 - Great Defense, Average offense, poor special teams.
Prediction: 9-3 ( losses to LSU, Auburn, Georgia )
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10-04-2006 @ 9:04PM
Colorado Dawg said...
I have to respectfully disagree with the title of this blog... I am a UGA fan and I can tell you that Florida IS a Top 5 team (who should be ahead of them that is behind them now???) Florida beat an up and down, but very talented, Tennessee team. While some of your points are valid, that they could play better and may lose a game or two, that is more about the brutal schedule than a sign that they shouldn't be in the Top 5. You want to talk about offensive woes... just look north of the border at my beloved Bulldogs! I've seen better HS offenses! Maybe we can get it together in 3 weeks, but right now, Gator fans have NOTHING to worry about come October 28th!
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